Grading my preseason AP Top 25 ballot: What I learned from Clemson, Indiana, and other misses
As an expert in college football rankings, I recently conducted a self-review of my preseason AP Top 25 ballot, reflecting on the successes and failures of the previous year. This process is crucial for growth and improvement, especially in a field as unpredictable as college football.
I approached this evaluation with a critical eye, acknowledging that my first instinct is often to be harsh. After all, it's easy to remember the losses more than the wins. But self-reflection is essential for progress.
I didn't just look at the results; I delved into the reasoning behind each vote, considering the knowns and quantifiable factors like returning production and coaching continuity. While analytics play a role, it's an art form, an educated guess at best.
I graded each slot on my ballot using letter grades, with no pluses or minuses, and no set criteria. The key was to see how close my preseason rankings were to the team's final AP Top 25 ranking. This method allowed me to assess the accuracy of my evaluations and projections.
Here's a breakdown of my grades and the lessons learned:
Texas: A Missed Opportunity
Grade: B
I was initially high on the Longhorns, but they underperformed. Still, they finished the season stronger than some SEC teams in the College Football Playoff. This miss felt significant, especially since I had them in my final top 10.
Penn State: The Ups and Downs
Grade: D
My skepticism about the Nittany Lions' hype was justified. Their bizarre season, with five one-score losses, meant they performed better than their record suggested. This grade reflects the challenge of predicting a team's true potential.
Alabama: Riding the Elephant
Grade: B
I was bullish on the Crimson Tide, but my confidence wavered as the season progressed. Adjusting my final rankings, I realized I held onto my initial optimism too long, which led to a missed prediction.
Clemson: Trusting Instincts
Grade: F
This was a galling failure. I initially trusted my instincts to place Clemson in the 10-12 range, but I succumbed to the offseason buzz, which led to a significant miss. It's a reminder that sometimes, we need to trust our initial instincts.
Indiana: A Turnaround Story
Grade: C
I failed to predict the greatest turnaround in major American sports. This grade reflects my inability to foresee the team's success, highlighting the challenge of anticipating a team's potential for improvement.
Other Grades and Insights
I graded other teams, including Oregon, Texas A&M, Michigan, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Florida, Miami, Arizona State, Illinois, Utah, Texas Tech, South Carolina, Louisville, Ole Miss, SMU, Boise State, and more.
I learned that being skeptical of encore performances is a solid strategy. I also recognized the importance of trusting my instincts and not being too formulaic. Some teams, like BYU, Vanderbilt, Virginia, and others, exceeded expectations, while others, like USC and Houston, proved their worth.
In conclusion, this self-review was a valuable exercise, providing insights into my ranking process and the challenges of predicting college football. It's a reminder that while we strive for accuracy, the sport's unpredictability makes it an art form, requiring a blend of analytics and intuition.
